On the flip side the chance of killing a townie by random chance in the first 7 (again assuming no medic protection and that the mafia always kill a townie) is (19*17*15*13*11*9*7)/(26*24*22*20*18*16*14) = 0.0394287109 = around a 4% chance (which is also almost a complete loss for us since once the townie number < mafia scum we lose).
Put it simply we need more than random guessing to win this thing, we need some kind of reason/evidence for lynching to skew the odds in our favour. Which is why its exceedingly important to notice patterns and odd behaviour
The chance isnt huge of this happening and us "lynching ourselves a loss" (~96:4 against that), but it is something to bear in mind.
Now I'm no behavior analyzer by profession, but this looks suspicious to me. (Just for you Telgor).
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1) He was my first suspect 2) He still hasn't defended himself 3) If he were a townie, (more) mafia scum would have been adding their votes by now to push us into lynching an innocent
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Sun Aug 28, 2011 10:34 pm
Sam
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Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:44 pm Posts: 3761 Location: Leicester, UK
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What happens if theres a big enough split in the votes that 13/14 cant be reached e.g. a 3 way split of 8, 8 and 10?
EDIT: Twister you seem to be very sporadic on your votes, know something we don't?
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Last edited by Extra_Cold on Mon Aug 29, 2011 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
Mon Aug 29, 2011 12:40 am
Sam
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Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2008 11:44 pm Posts: 3761 Location: Leicester, UK
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Re: [MAFIA] Day One
Then there'll be more arguing and eventually some people will change their votes. If it drags on for too long then I'll set a deadline and reduce the number of votes needed to lynch someone at that deadline.
Mon Aug 29, 2011 12:42 am
StingerNpt
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Re: [MAFIA] Day One
To vote for Bedizen on his first post is too snap a discission. Someone always had to be the first to vote or we would be here forever.
However is was very quick, therefore I would be wary of him because of this, in the future. If he is in character making ridiculous snap discussions he could be the serial killer. Although he is Bedizen, so...
Too early to decide yet.
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Mon Aug 29, 2011 10:05 am
Trent
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Re: [MAFIA] Day One
Thank you Mr_Twister!
My vote remains on Extra_Cold because he's clearly trying far too hard...
Not 100% sure if Bedizien is a Townie who made just the first vote or Mafia-Scum who made us kill an innocent Townie.
_________________ I've been trying to quit drinking. The other day I drank a 12-pack of Becks (nonalcoholic), and I went riding around in my car and I got pulled over by a cop. He's like, "Son, have you been drinking?" And I'm like, "Uh, sort of." he said, "What have you been drinking?" and I said "Becks, nonalcoholic beer." And he wrote me a ticket for being a gaylord.
If he were a townie, (more) mafia scum would have been adding their votes by now to push us into lynching an innocent
hmm makes feel like to unvote because that seem like im scum but then again if i unvoted it proved even more that i am mafia ..... in fact this could be a smart play by you Mr twister, if your mafia scum, unvoting would help you to make everyone think your not apart of the mafia .....
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![[mixed]](./images/smilies/mix40.gif "Hmmm")
(Just for you Telgor).
